FORECASTS ABOUT VARIABLE STARS
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                       G.Bono, J.Cuypers, L.Eyer

 The previous approaches to estimating the number of variable stars were
 based merely on the extension of observational data, in various ways (cf.
 Eyer & Cuypers 2000, ASPCS, 203, 71).

 Giuseppe Bono made an oral presentation about the forecasts of the number
 of variable stars based on a theoretical approach. He investigated the
 instability strip and considered three populations thin disk, thick disk
 and halo. The work is in progress and there will soon be some numbers.

 As already noted, there are discrepant results on eclipsing binaries. The
 origin of these discrepancies should be investigated, we are waiting for
 the publication of Staffan Soederhjelm's work.

 The Galactic model of Besancon will permit us to check this. However we
 could use it the other way around: the previous estimates will permit the
 validation of the Besancon Galactic Model!

 Apparently, except the work of Giuseppe and Staffan, there are no other
 studies in progress on the variable stars forecasts.


Laurent, Dafydd and Jan

The 19th of October 2004